A little over five years after the creation of the Open
Handset Alliance, Glyn Moody looks at Android's global market position
and the challenges that Google faces to avoid Android disappearing under
a plethora of other companies' interfaces and apps.
Is it really just a little over five years ago that
this happened?
A broad alliance of leading technology and wireless
companies today joined forces to announce the development of Android,
the first truly open and comprehensive platform for mobile devices.
Google Inc., T-Mobile, HTC, Qualcomm, Motorola and others have
collaborated on the development of Android through the Open Handset
Alliance, a multinational alliance of technology and mobile industry
leaders.
This alliance shares a common goal of fostering
innovation on mobile devices and giving consumers a far better user
experience than much of what is available on today's mobile platforms.
By providing developers a new level of openness that enables them to
work more collaboratively, Android will accelerate the pace at which new
and compelling mobile services are made available to consumers.
While some called the first Android phones "
iPhone killers" other pundits saw its shaky beginnings, and claimed it would never beat Apple's ascendant iPhone. Today, Android commands
70% of the global smartphone market, and even more outside the US, which remains Apple's stronghold.
Or what about tablets? Remember how people said that they were
different, and that Android would never beat Apple's hugely popular iPad
etc etc? And yet today, as many of us predicted, Android tablets are
recapitulating the smartphone story:
Smaller, cheaper Android tablets will nibble away at the
iPad's market share this year. IDC on Tuesday revised its forecasts for
the tablet market through 2013, which it now believes will climb to
190.9 million total units shipped. By the end of the year, IDC predicts
that more Android tablets will be shipped than iPads for the first time
since the iPad's 2010 debut.
IDC altered its numbers due to consumer purchasing
behavior during the last quarter of 2012, during which it saw a surge in
purchases of smaller tablets.
Smartphones and tablets are arguably the two most important computer
sectors at the moment, because they are both spearheading a move away
from the traditional desktop, dominated by Microsoft. That company's
dreadful showing in both mobile and tablets is a further confirmation
that this is a time of transition, when dominance is passing from
Microsoft, presumably to Google.
But of course, things are never that simple. At the very moment that
most people are admitting that Android has won, we are also seeing signs
that victory may be slipping through its fingers. One of the clearest
manifestations of that is the rise of Samsung as a smartphone
manufacturer.
Even though the recent launch of the Samsung Galaxy S4 received
rather mixed reviews, there was no doubt that it was a media event
comparable to the launch of a new Apple iPhone (some might argue that's
not a good thing...) And Samsung's product line is far deeper than
Apple's: it offers over
70 different Android models, and represents around
42% of all shipments in that sector.
But the stronger Samsung gets, the less it will regard itself as part
of the larger Android ecosystem. Indeed, it will be keen to
differentiate itself from rival handset manufacturers, and one obvious
way to do that is to slather proprietary layers on top of the underlying
operating system. Once that happens, herd instinct will probably cause
the others to follow suit – each trying to out-do the other in terms of
the gaudy interface it puts in front of the user and the apps that are
bundled, until the Android-ness of the smartphone is more nominal than
real.
And it's not just the big names who will be driving Android
fragmentation. Although largely invisible here in the West, Android use
in China has been increasing even more rapidly than elsewhere: it has
already recently achieved an amazing
90% market share of the smartphone market there.
Interestingly, its hold in urban areas is lower – only
around 70%
– which implies it's well over 90% elsewhere. That's because few
outside the main cities can afford high-end iPhones, and most opt for
low-cost Androids instead. Those are the real game-changers not just for
China, but for the world. This
report explains the background:
...last year large chip makers, including the
Taiwan-based MediaTek and Spreadtrum, started offering “turn-key”
systems: phone designs plus a set of chips with Android and other
software preloaded. Spreadtrum says it may sell 100 million units this
year.
Each chipset costs $5 to $10, depending on the size of a
phone’s screen and other features. In total, Liang says, his cost to
make a smartphone is about $40. He says he can manufacture as many as
30,000 smartphones a day for brands such as Konka Mobile and for telecom
operators like China Unicom.
Google faces new challenges
This means that Android systems can already be offered for a few tens
of dollars, and that price will probably fall. It's these systems that
will flood emerging economies – Asia, Africa and South America – and
ensure that Android emerges as the dominant player there, too. But once
more, that's not necessarily good news for Google: Chinese manufacturers
have no qualms about installing their own apps and interfaces. These
will be Android phones only at the lowest levels, with varying levels of
compatibility. As
The H reported recently, the Chinese government is
unhappy
with Google's dominance in the smartphone market, and can be expected
to encourage any move by local manufacturers to assert their
independence in this way.
Unfortunately for Google, these challenges are coming at a time when Android will be largely rudderless.
News
that Android's creator, Andy Rubin, has "decided it’s time to hand over
the reins and start a new chapter at Google" means that Android's new
boss, Sundar Pichal, will be too busy dealing with internal
organisational matters as he brings Android alongside Chrome to worry
much about external challenges. The fact that one of those is coming
from lots of obscure Chinese companies turning out ultra-cheap
pseudo-Android systems will make it even harder for him to respond.
Moreover, Google's wavering commitment to openness isn't helping it
to win – or even keep – friends at this critical juncture. The
introduction of
DRM extensions to HTML5 on Chrome OS, is one example of this. Even worse is the
following:
In a shocking move, Google has recently deleted AdBlock
Plus from the Android Play Store. This is hugely disappointing because
it demonstrates that Google is willing to censor software and abandon
its support for open platforms as soon as there's an ad-related business
reason for doing so.
Until now, the internet and software development
communities have relied on Google to be safely on their side when it
comes to building open platforms, encouraging innovation, and giving
users maximum choice about how their computers will function. But with
today's news, that commitment to openness suddenly looks much, much
weaker.
Nor does Google have many friends left among the handset
manufacturers. After the upbeat start five years ago, the Open Handset
Alliance (OHA) has faded away – the last "What's New" item on its
home page is dated 18 July 2011. It is probably no coincidence that shortly afterwards, on 15 August 2011,
Google acquired Motorola Mobility, thus placing itself in direct competition with the other OHA members, who were presumably pretty cheesed off.
Despite these bad things happening, it's worth emphasising how much
Google has achieved with Android. Single-handedly it has established
open systems and Linux as the default approach for mobile computing –
both for smartphones and tablets. That may explain in part the sudden
flowering of alternatives, all of which take for granted the fact that
their systems will be Linux-based and open to varying degrees.
Indeed, the usually dull Mobile World Congress turned into an
astonishing celebration of both those aspects. The clear stars of the
show were Mozilla's
Firefox OS and
Ubuntu Touch, with
Jolla Sailfish and
Tizen
playing supporting roles. Significantly, these were seen as being far
more innovative than the mainstream offerings at the show.
Of course, whether all – or even any – of those can flourish is still
unclear. But the fact that they even exist, let alone are being
received with interest, offers an astonishing contrast with the mobile
sector five years ago, when free software was largely irrelevant and
almost completely ignored. For all the global successes of the new top
dogs Google and Android, that is the real victory here.
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